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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd