Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
