A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
