‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Constricts India's LPG Availability.
The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's homes.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, availability of cooking gas are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.
"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply is unavailable," says a official of the an industry group.
Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are turning to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."
Regional Impact
In a western metro, accounts say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have depleted with little backup. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers report a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Official Position
Yet, the government states there is no shortage.
India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say stocks are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.
About 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now largely blocked by the war.
The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been sparked by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the caption reads.
According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.
India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.
Based on vessel tracking and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The real vulnerability is LPG, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.
Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.
An industry representative claims price gouging.
"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."
For now, India's energy imports may be protected by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.
